I would say formally - in the field of longevity, the gradient descent into something great is almost in the same direction as gradient descent in the direction of scams, quick money schemes and healthspan-style simplifications.
It means that deviations along the road are very easy and very attractive.
You want to solve aging but end up selling snake oil.
Agree. The most dangerous thing is that the path toward defeating aging and the path towards selling snake oil often starts with the same first steps.
I bet that before making any startup or actual move in the field, the person, who really wants to fight aging, should write at least 10-20 essays as an exercise to upgrade own position.
One of the most underestimated reasons longevity is moving so slowly is that this is not just a biology problem.
It is a market design problem.
The system rewards not the maximum extension of healthy lifespan, but minimum risk, a legible regulatory path, short investment horizons, and predictable returns.
Because of that, almost everyone moves not toward the biggest upside for lifespan extension, but toward places where the funding traces have already been laid down, both in science and in the clinic.
As a result:
— in science, what gets rewarded is publishable novelty and short, low-risk studies, not necessarily gains in human function;
— in healthcare, money goes to servicing individual breakdowns, not to systematically postponing age-related decline;
— in biotech, capital flows into de-risked paths with fresh IP, not into the strongest hypotheses;
— in translation, many strong ideas die between good biology and first-in-human, because that stretch is too risky for ordinary capital or lacks a familiar endpoint that a clear customer will pay for.
And then there is the other demand: “Explain to us in 60 seconds what exactly you are trying to do here.”
So the hand of the market says not “hit aging at the root,” but “go where the money already is and where you are less likely to look insane.”
Angels, funds, and corporations find it easier to love things that can show results in 3–5 years. Fine, 7–10 if it is pharma. Academia finds it easier to fund things that can be researched within a funding cycle and turned into a paper other people will cite, without too much risk.
But longevity does not like any of that.
The problem is that here we often do not merely lack the answer.
We do not even know where the most important questions are.
Ask any neural network for the top 10 plausible unknown unknowns that could turn out to be causal in aging, and each one will give you a different 10. Not because these are definitely silver bullets, but because the search space is still wildly incomplete.
So what this field needs is not just long institutional money that can survive political swings from left to right and back again, but also tolerance for pivots, willingness to research unknown unknowns, and the ability to live for a long time without a clean linear story, without a hockey-stick chart, and without any guarantee that you are even looking in the right place.
There is also a nearly comic problem here: the things that may be the biggest low-hanging fruit often get studied the least.
Repurposing is unpopular because the IP moat is weaker and the upside is worse for classical venture logic. If the molecule is already known, it is harder to defend outsized returns, which means it is harder to raise money for long, high-quality studies. And researchers have less incentive to dig all the way to the truth because they can already see the ceiling on the upside, even if they prove something real.
Peptides often get stuck between worlds too. They may be biologically interesting, but commercially, regulatorily, and from a manufacturing standpoint they often look less convenient than a “clean” small-molecule story that can be neatly packaged into the standard biotech playbook.
So the problem is not that repurposing or peptides are necessarily weak. The problem is that they fit poorly into the current machinery of monetization, IP, and approval pathways.
But the primary bottleneck here is probably not business horizons. It is regulation.
Longevity is a public benefit.
Seriosly, it is good for everyone, not just a dream for some trillionaire who might crash in a helicopter tomorrow.
Regulation defines the map of what is allowed.
If there is no clear path for aging, tissue function, resilience, repair, homeostasis, and other systemic targets, capital will rationally flow along the already permitted routes. It does not create the frame. It optimizes inside it.
Everything I am describing here is not a bug in individual people. It is normal system behavior when the reward function is crooked and not aligned with the interests of the end user.
If you follow the Thanos logic — “I will do it myself, I will force it through, I will solve it” — you end up in the same place: the same dead end and the same inner degradation. You start as Thanos and end as a trembling creature in front of a scientific or entrepreneurial board.
So what is needed is not a tantrum against the system, but a redesign of incentives.
And the most interesting part is that many of the low-hanging fixes here cost almost nothing.
All it takes is:
— recognizing aging and tissue dysfunction as valid scientific and regulatory categories;
— allowing grants for aging research without forcing everything into single-disease boxes;
— creating distinct incentives for repurposing and other low-IP interventions;
— allowing interventions to reach the market not only through disease labels, but also through tissue function, as long as safety and reproducible functional benefit are shown;
— reimbursing gains in function, not only procedures or the treatment of fully developed disease.
Longevity is not slowed only because it is hard science.
This is a question of what the system considers a legitimate object of research, regulation, and reimbursement.
As long as that remains the case, capital will keep following the old tracks.
Not the places with the biggest payoff for humanity.
In some countries, fragments of a more sensible logic already exist.
They should not just be discussed. They should be spread.